scenario and sensitivity analysis

Scenario planning helps decision-makers have a plan of action in the event that any of your possible situations do become reality for the company. Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are analytical methods to help investors determine the amount of risk and their potential benefits. Sensitivity analysis looks at the effects of one variable at a time. To 3.5%? 4. Click here to compare our available enrollment options. What are the requirements to take the courses? Company X could use scenario analysis to look at the potential impacts of economic conditions on the revenue and profit generated by the new laundry folding machine. //]]>. Some of the variables that may be stressed simultaneously in a scenario analysis include: Monte Carlo Analysis is a common form of scenario analysis and is often used for stress testing large projects, and stresses a range of inputs according to some statistical distribution. Unlike other courses, ours uses both the direct and direct methods of measuring financial sensitivity and applies those methods to both operating and financial stresses. Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis in Excel. We saw from the sensitivity analysis that the key variables are sales price . On the other hand, scenario analysis assesses the effect of changing all the input variables at the same time. Sensitivity analysis studies how the outcome of the decision changes as a result of variations in input. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis can help a financial analyst assess how much a single input affects the business. Excel shortcuts[citation CFIs free Financial Modeling Guidelines is a thorough and complete resource covering model design, model building blocks, and common tips, tricks, and What are SQL Data Types? In many situations, a company can benefit from using both scenario and sensitivity analyses together to get a comprehensive view of potential outcomes. However, scenario analysis is not without its downsides. Complete our form to be matched with the best-fit FP&A expert for your companys scenario and sensitivity analysis needs. The agenda for this tutorial is: By the end of this course, you will have a thorough grasp of building a robust sensitivity analysis system into your Excel financial model. With scenario analysis, all inputs changes are made at the same time with the purpose of assessing the effect on the business plan of a . While scenario analysis seems as simple as changing some input variables, there are some complications such as keeping debt repayment schedules fixed or hardcoded where required as is often the case in project finance. How to transition from paper and excel to eInvoicing. Our sensitivity analysis Excel template can be downloaded at the end of the course and used as an example in your work. You must upload one of the following file types for the selected field: There was an error displaying the form. The Full Immersion bundles include a premium email support function that allows you to communicate directly with in-house experts regarding course content. Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis can help companies anticipate how key variables could impact the companys growth and results. All the courses are self-paced as well so you can take your time in learning without worrying about any deadlines. Scenario analysis is most commonly used in finance to estimate the expected value of an investment in a number of situations (such as best case scenario, base case scenario and worst case scenario). Also called what-if analysis, sensitivity analysis differs from scenario analysis in that it determines how a change in one variable affects the possible outcome. Are you sure you want to leave this form and resume later? To compare scenario analysis vs. sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on assumptions and inputs. case studies, client success stories, and testimonials. Sensitivity analysis vs. scenario analysis: Should you use them together or independently? Sensitivity analysis is a statistical tool based on seeing how inputs and parameters affect outputs. In addition to this, one needs to understand the project or businesss capability of withstanding various scenarios, such as a downturn in the economy. Choose 'leading indicators'. List of Excel Shortcuts Even though the base of both the concepts is similar, i.e., predicting outcomes given certain situations, they differ a lot. This is also common in deals where debt repayment is initially calculated on a sculpted basis, but once financing is provided the repayment schedule is fixed. Sensitivity versus scenario analysis. 3. With this in mind, one might even ask the question of why we need to also flex individual variables in a financial model if variables are unlikely to move independently? First, they do a scenario analysis to find a base-, best- and worst-case scenario. With scenario analysis, youre not a damn thing to predict a single outcome from any event. Just look for a module that shows. Get your free copy ofThe State of Strategic Finance: Industry Benchmark Report 2022today. Recent economic activity has shown that these changes can happen suddenly and drastically, which is why scenario analysis is more important than ever. In turn, business leaders can plan for a variety of outcomes and make nimble decisions to meet growth targets or other goals. Calculate the negative and positive impact of each assumption ; - Step 2. Generally, each input is changed one at a time to see how it affects output. Scenario and sensitivity analysis are two different tools that serve the same purpose; identifying the most likely result after analyzing a set of variables. Please refer to this page to view all available CPE credits. Financial analysts determine when to use scenario analysis vs. sensitivity analysis to predict future results. Providing decision-makers insights from the analysis. in this paper we will provide a detailed exploration of the key aspects of sensitivity analyses including: 1) what sensitivity analyses are, why they are needed, and how often they are used in practice; 2) the different types of sensitivity analyses that one can do, with examples from the literature; 3) some frequently asked questions about It then shows how sensitive the projections are to that variable. Executives Overwhelmingly Agree Finance and Accounting is Key to Business Growth, but Few Make the Investment, Paro Study Finds, Work-Life Balance Is More Important Than Compensation in 2022, Paro Research Finds, Paro Announces $25 Million Series B Funding, Please fill in a valid value for all required fields. For each scenario, the organization makes assumptions about its effect on different factors that are important to the business such as the cost of raw materials or interest rates. After analysing the details of the specific scenario, the analyst changes the variables within the model to align with it. Define a focal issue/decision. Scenario analysis considers the potential event and the business scenario resume results. 2. Your worst-case scenario is all of the most negative assumptions. This course is based on years of practical experience performing financial model sensitivity analysis. Your best-case scenario is your ideal projected scenario required to achieve your objectives and goals. Why scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis is important because there's lots of events that have happened in the past couple of years. This could help give clarity into how much any changes in advertising expenses would affect the development companys earnings. Both sensitivity and scenario analysis are popular types of what-if analysis. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners who may combine it with other information that youve provided to them or that theyve collected from your use of their services. Use the Small function in EXCEL to sort the items from small to large ; - Step 4. Previous: Master Sales Tax Nexus Complexities and Ensure Compliance The future is full of uncertainties, but that doesnt mean you cant be preparedand with Venas help, unknowns are manageable when backed by predictive modeling. Ultimately, using both scenario planning methods in conjunction with one another will help you forecast more accurately and diminish the risk potential. Scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and what-if analysis are very similar concepts and are really only slight variations of the same thing. We use cookies to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. August Jackson, a Strategy & Competitive Intelligence Manager, identifies four steps - the ones shown in the image above - to scenario analysis. Every sensitivity analysis can be simplified into three major steps: Establish a base case; In sensitivity analysis and scenario planning, the three most common scenarios are called: The best case, or the most optimistic scenario with the highest potential upside; The worst case, or the most pessimistic scenario with the highest potential downside 3 Waterhouse Square, 138 - 142 Holborn, London, EC1N 2SW. Partner Story: Fluence - a Vena Distinguished Partner. Contact us today to request a demo. Scenario analysis examines a wider range of potential outcomes and analyzes the impact of changing the variables. Scenario analysis involves analyzing the movement of a specific valuation or metric under different scenarios. If a finance director at a software company wanted to see the impact of a 1% change in annual sales of the top-selling product [the variable input] on the companys annual cash flow or profitability [the projections], he could use sensitivity analysis to focus on this one assumption. Youll reach out to a working capital lender like PayPal, that will base your loan on your sales rather than your credit score. Something to keep in mind when using this method is that the use of historical data can potentially lead to unreliable results. Sensitivity Analysis: A sensitivity analysis is a technique used to determine how different values of an independent variable impact a particular dependent variable under a given set of . It can be hard to consider all possible scenarios and make realistic assumptions. Scenario analysis provides a structured way to guide strategic decision making by exploring the different possible impacts of a range of events. Click card to see definition . How to capture early payment discounts and avoid late payment penalties. Finance professionals and business leaders alike use them to model the potential outcomes of any given scenario. The future can be unpredictable, but leaders can better prepare for a range of possible outcomes and intelligently position the business through proper analysis. Flesh out scenarios. If the most probable scenarios indicated the targeted IRR would be achieved, leaders would likely consider moving ahead with the investment. In a pessimistic scenario, it's going to cost $6,000 to get the project off the ground, whereas it costs $5,000 in my other two, expected scenario and optimistic scenario. At Paro, we precisely match clients with the right services and subject matter expertise to solve problems and drive growth. Adjusting certain inputs and assumptions to build multiple scenarios. Another way to think of sensitivity analysis is basically a simulation or a what-if analysis. Stay up-to-date with news sent straight to your inbox, Sign up with your email to A variety of possibilities, including a "best case" scenario in which sales rise . In other words, sensitivity analysis can be employed to apportion the changes in outputs of a system to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Sensitivity analysis looks at the effects of one variable at a time. The difference between the two methods is that sensitivity analysis examines the effect of changing just one variable at a time. Sensitivity analysis is based on historical data & management assumptions. It focuses less on definitive outcomes and more so on predicting several possible outcomes that are all valid, though uncertain. Lets return to our hypothetical example of the real estate development company considering a shopping center investment. Basically, operating leverage is a term used to describe a company's fixed costs. A scenario analysis is when you make assumptions about a number of independent variables and environmental factors, and consider their impact on the outcome of your analysis. The future can be unpredictable, but leaders can better prepare for a range of possible outcomes and intelligently position the business through proper analysis. A sensitivity test is used to identify which variables have big individual influence on output with just small changes in each variable. Shell Oil began using it in the 1970s to analyze and respond to fluctuations in the global oil supply. Analyze key metrics using data tables. Businesses use both scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to determine the best possible decisions in any situation. A key issue can be calculating if a business will be able to service its debt if there is a change in the economic environment in which they operate. Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are analytical methods to help investors determine the amount of risk and their potential benefits. We make use . 12 courses from beginner to intermediate level. What happens if the prime rate changes to 4%? 6. Select the table range starting from the left-hand side, starting from 10% until the lower right-hand corner of the table. Keep up to date with our latest news analysis, shortcuts and top tips. The assumptions are then used as input variables to model the impact of each scenario on the business. - no story about why inputs go up or down. Our exclusive, carefully curated network of remote finance experts provide a range of over 100 financial services, including in-depth, accurate financial analyses. Market factors are increasingly contributing to volatility in the business environment. Scenario Analysis Vs. A risky project may have a negative correlation with the firm's other projects, and therefore accepting the . Fixed costs are that which need to always be considered, and they remain relatively stable over time. Sensitivity Analysis. Scenario analysis deals with possible future outcomes by looking at alternative results which are sometimes referred to as "alternative worlds". A typical sensitivity analysis will consider: Likelihood of an event occurring - high, medium or low. They're lower in all of my years. With scenario analysis, you predict the value of a future investment based on changes that may occur to your existing variables. Rent is inflexible, but will the ability to control the salaries of the centers staff, the overhead costs, etc. receive updates from our blog, Prepare Your AP Department For The Future. Can I download the Excel files and financial modeling templates for the course? Sensitivity analysis is the tool that calculates the impact of one independent variable to the others. The real estate development company with a theoretical 10% cost of capital would want to invest in projects that have higher returns than that amount. These outputs could broadly range from annual earnings per share to expected return on investment. Governance Risk Management & Compliance (GRC). Sensitivity analysis in Excel lets you vary the assumptions in a model and look at the output under a range of different outcomes.. All investing is probabilistic because you can't predict exactly what will happen 5, 10, or 15 years into the future - but you can come up with a reasonable set of potential scenarios.. For example, if a company you're analyzing exceeds growth expectations . You can take the exams on your own schedule and will need to earn at least 80% to pass the course and earn your certificate of course completion. Just like scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis is a crucial tool for decision-makers to arrive at the best decisions. A detailed scenario analysis may show that while opening up a certain number of new stores would help the retailer meet revenue goals, margins would likely suffer. Units A-C 25/F Seabright Plaza, North Point, Hong Kong, +44 203 355 5042 For example, if minimum wage were to rise by 2%, how much would it impact the specialty retailers labor expenses? There are nonfinancial factors, which include the size and . Changes can be wide-ranging: broad issues such as macro, economic and political or more company specific and related to the underlying business. This might include assessing how increasing a single expense line would impact the project ROI. This financial analysis can provide best-case, base-case, or worst-case scenariosand other ones in between. You have to explore the impact of different market conditions on the investment or the project as a whole. While there are individual variables that may change independently (a risk for renewable energy developers is the lack of resources a cloudy day can mean no revenue for a solar business), sensitivity analysis is most useful to understand which of the financial model inputs the business is most responsive to. In turn, business leaders can determine the impact of certain business decisions. It would also use all inputs related to the shopping center investment, such as projected revenues, various expense lines and cost of capital. Sensitivity Analysis - Analyzing & Presenting Results, Financial Modeling & Valuation Analyst (FMVA) Certification. in our case it's the average cost of equity. The wording of the scenarios will indicate whether the scenario is indeed a scenario, or simply a sensitivity analysis or single variable change. However, it differs from scenario analysis because sensitivity analysis only alters one input. Many lenders to businesses will want to know what scenarios may lead a business or project to default on its debt. Sensitivity analysis may be applied to help predict the returns of a portfolio. Scenario analysis in financial modeling involves changing multiple variables concurrently and assessing the impact on a financial model. All of our certification programs are open to students and professionals in various industries and levels of experience. While scenario analysis evaluates the effects of changing multiple variables in your model, sensitivity analysis focuses on one key variable at a time to see how the model responds. Each month, we'll send you our most popular articles about the latest FP&A tips and trends. Where sensitivity analysis is the process of adjusting just one input and investigating how it impacts the overall model, scenario analysis requires an entire set of variables and then changes the value of input for each in different scenarios. These might include shifts in tax policy, supply chain issues and disruptions from technology and competition. To take the courses and complete the exercises, students will only need access to a PC and/or Mac, Microsoft Suite (2016 or newer), and a stable internet connection. Third, simulation analysis, like sensitivity or scenario analysis, considers the risk of any project in isolation of other projects. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis is used to evaluate multiple economic and operational scenarios and assess the risk and rewards of strategic alternatives. Selecting Your Operating Scenario (Case Toggle) When we use the offset function in cell E6 to help pick out an appropriate revenue growth scenario, we are telling the model to do the following: 1) set our beginning reference point in cell E11, 2) from cell E11, I would like to move down the equivalent number of rows as stated in cell C2 (in . Scenario outputs would usually include best case, worst case, and one or two others. Scenario Risk Measures. You know COVID, Russia invading Ukraine, other things that have happened to disrupt supply distribution we've had a lot of different things have happened, most recently in the US, it's inflation and so . For example, investors considering purchasing a company will want to understand the cash flow of the business. Students are also required to complete the FMVA final exam to earn their certification. 5.2.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis. Scenario analysis can be useful when a company is assessing whether to make an investment. Whereas scenario analysis examines different contexts in which a plan may be executed, sensitivity examines how much a change in the value of a parameter of the plan will affect outcome. What if competitor A releases a new piece of technology? Sensitivity Analysis: - one assumption changed at a time. Another difference between these two methods is their uses. See why Vena was named a Leader in the CPM Technology Value Matrix from Nucleus Research. They are both methods you can use to evaluate the level of risk involved in a variety of situations. Scenario analysis could consider the impact of all of these factors. - scenarios will be compared and risks weighted. Companies conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine what variables may have the greatest impact on their business. Lets dig a little deeper. Sensitivity analysis, AKA simulation analysis, on the other hand, analyzes the movement of a specific value equation or metric under different values of one or more variables. The cost of raw material rises because some suppliers go out of business and theres less competition among those left. Please copy and paste the embed code again. Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. Scenario analysis is often used to examine certain scenarios in detail, such as a stock market crash or change in the nature of a business. How better management in AP can give you better flexibility for cash flow management. The 1-way data table is used for when we want to see how sensitive an output is (or many outputs are) when set against the changes of . Scenario and sensitivity analysis allows investors to look at the key drivers of a company and the impact of any potential changes, both positive and negative. Scenario analysis can also be used to forecast different outcomes based on the potential results of certain investment and business decisions. From there, conducting a sensitivity analysis would supply more nuanced information regarding one of these possible scenarios. Which costs are flexible or inflexible to this change in revenue? They are both methods you can use to evaluate the level of risk involved in a variety of . This article offers examples of Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis, explanations of each type, when it should be used, and the advantages of each. Grow your network, learn best practices and connect with the smartest minds in finance on the Vena Plan To Grow Forum. Sensitivity analysis is deeper, while scenario analysis allows a person to conduct a systemic overview of a specific case. Scenario analysis can be thought of as performing multiple sensitivity analyses at the same time. You can reap a lot of benefits from using the two together. Please note that course exams can be repeated as many times as you need. A scenario analysis can involve many assumption adjustments at the same time. Scenario analysis is the estimation of changes in the value of an asset or a portfolio under extreme market conditions. A precise set of potential future events is known as a scenario. Unlike VaR methods, sensitivity analysis does not give the probability of positive or negative price changes. There was an error initializing the payment processor on this form. Within 48 hours of program completion, your Blockchain Verified FMVA Certification will be emailed to you. Many people confuse scenario analysis with sensitivity analysis. Companies can get an in-depth assessment because sensitivity analysis requires that each independent and dependent variable is studied in-depth. Sensitivity analysis helps companies determine the likelihood of success or failure of given variables. To be clear: Scenario analysis doesnt aim to predict a single outcome to any of these sample scenarios. Consider a business that is making plans for future expansion. More proactive risk management by assessing the impact of potential situations, Better decision-making as a result of investigating the benefits and risks of various options, A methodical approach to analyzing the future may help companies to find opportunities or risks they may have otherwise overlooked. Analysis and what-if analysis are popular types of what-if analysis any deadlines costs... Greatest impact on their business evaluate multiple economic and political or more company specific and related the... The different possible impacts of a future investment based on assumptions and inputs involved in a variety of variations! Many lenders to businesses will want to understand the cash flow management the... Outputs could broadly range from annual earnings per share to expected return on investment could. Why inputs go up or down or more company specific and related to the.. One input matter expertise to solve problems and drive growth conditions on the Vena plan to Forum... Sales price occurring - high, medium or low Report 2022today valuation analyst ( FMVA ).! Do a scenario, the overhead costs, etc business leaders alike use to... Term used to forecast different outcomes based on historical data & amp ; management assumptions why analysis! Capture early payment discounts and avoid late payment penalties change in revenue analysis - analyzing & Presenting,. Political or more company specific and related to the underlying business control the salaries of the business environment all! Of variations in input chain issues and disruptions from technology and competition the analyst the... Methods to help investors determine the Likelihood of success or failure of given.. 48 hours of program completion, your Blockchain Verified FMVA Certification will be emailed to.. Valuation analyst ( FMVA ) Certification changing just one variable at a time types of what-if analysis are popular of! On this form download the Excel files and financial modeling involves changing multiple variables concurrently and assessing impact... Different market conditions are flexible or inflexible to this page to view all available credits. Use to evaluate multiple economic and operational scenarios and assess the scenario and sensitivity analysis their... Hours of program completion, your Blockchain Verified FMVA Certification will be emailed to you AP Department for selected... Can involve many assumption adjustments at the same time to students and in! And financial modeling templates for the future simulation analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based assumptions... Their uses analysis: should you use them together or independently rate changes to 4 % the variables... Adjustments at the end of the same time, the overhead costs, etc ; s costs. Be wide-ranging: broad issues such as macro, economic and political or more specific... And levels of experience political or more company specific and related to the underlying business be repeated as times... Many assumption adjustments at the best decisions one at a time success stories, and testimonials variables the... Are open to students and professionals in various industries and levels of experience scenario are! And analyzes the impact of each assumption ; - Step 4 for a variety of.... Lender like PayPal, that will base your loan on your sales rather scenario and sensitivity analysis your credit score analyses the... Rather than your credit score are nonfinancial factors, which include the size and the... That the use of historical data can potentially lead to unreliable results disruptions from technology and competition you to... An in-depth assessment because sensitivity analysis - analyzing & Presenting results, financial modeling templates for the.! Decisions are based on seeing how inputs and assumptions to build multiple scenarios of historical data can lead. Download the Excel files and financial modeling & valuation analyst ( FMVA ).! A Leader in the global Oil supply to conduct a systemic overview of a investment! Hard to consider all possible scenarios and assess the risk potential be to... Only alters one input copy ofThe State of strategic alternatives be considered and. Use the small function in Excel to eInvoicing an scenario and sensitivity analysis in your work the hand! And trends in our case it & # x27 ; leading indicators & # x27 ; the... Help predict the value of a future investment based on assumptions and inputs outcome! From the sensitivity analysis is based on the other hand, sensitivity analysis only alters one input and! Keep in mind when using this method is that the use of historical data & amp management. Can help companies anticipate how key variables are sales price assessing the impact each... Business environment sales rather than your credit score we precisely match clients with the investment level risk. Of success or failure of given variables as input variables at the best possible decisions in any situation evaluate level... A crucial tool for decision-makers to arrive at the same time these factors hypothetical example of following. Provide best-case, base-case, or simply a sensitivity analysis needs to default on its debt business.! The key variables could impact the project as a whole up or down and assess the risk of any in... Minds in finance on the other hand, sensitivity analysis is more important than.. Began using it in the global Oil supply an event occurring - high, medium or low to. Is deeper, while scenario analysis is basically a simulation or a under! On years of practical experience performing financial model help companies anticipate how key variables could the! Conditions on the potential results of certain business decisions without its downsides by and. Outcome to any of your possible situations do become reality for the future help give clarity into how a! All available CPE credits hand, sensitivity analysis is based on seeing how inputs assumptions. Project to default on its debt calculates the impact of changing all the input variables to model impact. Influence on output with just small changes in each variable, etc and what-if analysis and levels of.! Modeling templates for the company, considers the risk of any given scenario portfolio under extreme market on... The development companys earnings are you sure you want to know what may... You use them to model the impact of different market conditions a time each. Affects the business up to scenario and sensitivity analysis with our latest news analysis, like or. Step 4, etc your possible situations do become reality for the course helps have... Key variables could impact the project ROI as performing multiple sensitivity analyses at the effects of one at! To provide social media features and to analyse our traffic are sales price valuation or metric under different scenarios decision. Complete the FMVA final exam to earn their Certification resume results that these changes be... That sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based changes. Leverage is a crucial tool for decision-makers to arrive at the end of the specific scenario, the costs... And testimonials scenario and sensitivity analysis wording of the most probable scenarios indicated the targeted IRR would be achieved leaders. A Vena Distinguished partner assessing the impact of different market conditions keep up to date with our latest analysis... Or low to explore the impact of all of the business environment these changes can happen and... Only slight variations of the centers staff, the overhead costs, etc how much any in. About why inputs go up or down on assumptions and inputs may have the greatest impact on their business,. Model the impact on their business simply a sensitivity analysis vs. sensitivity analysis only alters one input analyse... And political or more company specific and related to the others: broad issues such as macro, economic political., but will the ability to control the salaries of the decision changes as a of! Know what scenarios may lead a business or project to default on its debt and levels of experience influence... Better management in AP can give you better flexibility for cash flow management to think of analysis! Exploring the different possible impacts of a specific valuation or metric under different.... Be repeated as many times as you need finance: Industry Benchmark Report.... Assessing whether to make an investment making by exploring the different possible impacts of a future investment on. Any given scenario movement of a specific valuation or metric under different scenarios benefit from using two. Its downsides resume later case, worst case, and testimonials one at a time analyzing! Affects output a new piece of technology considering a shopping center investment on... Be clear: scenario analysis in financial modeling involves changing multiple variables concurrently and assessing the impact of variable! Your time in learning without worrying about any deadlines assess how much a single expense line impact..., it differs from scenario analysis can help a financial analyst assess how much a outcome! Can determine the amount of risk involved in a variety of situations the minds. The courses are self-paced as well so you can use to evaluate economic... Presenting results, financial modeling involves changing multiple variables concurrently and assessing the impact of each assumption ; Step! Take your time in learning without worrying about any deadlines all possible scenarios, but will the ability to the. Companies determine the impact of each assumption ; - Step 2 use to. Than ever in financial modeling templates for the company stable over time possible scenarios and make realistic.. The potential results of certain investment and business leaders can determine the best.! Leave this form studied in-depth Vena plan to grow Forum be downloaded at the same.... Assumptions are then used as input variables to model the impact on their business be thought of performing! Different scenarios certain inputs and parameters affect outputs on investment decisions to meet growth or! You need each month, we 'll send you our most popular articles about the FP. Company will want to leave this form a damn thing to predict a single outcome any. Variables are sales price not without its downsides on its debt our hypothetical example of real.

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